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Oil prices plunged more than 11% on March 10, the steepest one-day percentage drop since 2022, after Trump predicted a quick end to the war with Iran. Brent settled at $87.80 and WTI at $83.45 after both hit four-year highs the previous day.
The US military reportedly facilitated an oil shipment out of the Strait of Hormuz.
Easing expectations of the Iran war reduce the risk premium on crude, which lowers energy input costs and reduces the pull on biofuel-linked feedstock prices. Prices remain well above pre-war levels, so volatility is likely to persist.
reuters.comLaila Kearney, Scott Disavino, Stephanie KellyMar 10, 2026After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Brent settled down about 11% on March 10 at $87.80 after Trump predicted a quick end to the war, a sentiment-driven reversal that lowered the geopolitical risk premium.
