Crude futures were steady on Friday and headed for their largest weekly decline in 10 months, with WTI down almost 13% on the week. US March CPI rose 3.3% year on year, the highest in almost two years, driven by energy costs from the Iran war.
Peace talks in Islamabad were set to begin that weekend.
Crude and diesel prices are falling on peace-talk hopes, which eases input costs for feed production and freight. Elevated inflation and firm energy costs could still support the dollar and keep the macro backdrop volatile.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 10 past neutral geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.0%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Crude headed for its largest weekly decline in 10 months (WTI down ~13%) on peace hopes, matching the five-day ULSD slump.