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A Reuters poll of FX strategists found the dollar's rebound since the start of the US war with Iran is likely to be short-lived. Most strategists still expect the currency to weaken, citing doubts about the haven appeal of US assets.
Expectations of a weaker dollar later in the year would support US commodity export competitiveness, though the outlook depends on how long the conflict persists.
reuters.comSarupya GangulyMar 4, 2026After 10 past neutral geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.0%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
