
Brent fell about 12% on the week and WTI nearly 10%, their steepest weekly losses since April, as traders bet the US and Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Only nine of 53 container vessels trapped in the Gulf have exited, and Asian crude demand has retreated sharply.
Reopening bets are pressuring crude lower, but restricted flows and falling inventories limit the downside, and weaker Asian crude demand adds to bearish pressure on energy costs for feed buyers.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.