OPEC sources told Reuters that OPEC will increase supply starting in October, removing the possibility of delaying the planned production cuts rollback. WTI traded near $73.54 and Brent near $77.14, with crude falling close to 3% and dropping below $75.
The Libyan outage was noted as a short-term supply concern, and the DXY was above 101.00.
Confirmed OPEC supply increases weigh on crude prices and the broader energy complex. Lower energy prices can reduce biofuel demand support for vegetable oils.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 10 past neutral geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.0%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.