
Oil settled at one-month lows as the US pushed a Russia-Ukraine peace plan that could boost supply, and sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil took effect. Brent fell 1.3% to $62.56 and WTI slid 1.6% to $58.06.
A possible peace deal raises the prospect of more Russian fuel exports, which would add supply and lower energy costs. Sanctions still limit that near term.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.