
Brent fell about 2.4% to $39.94 and US crude fell 2.4% to $37.78 in Asian trade after Trump's positive COVID-19 test. The yen strengthened to 105.17 per dollar from an earlier low of 105.66.
Lower crude weakens the energy input to biofuel economics and freight costs, which pressures soyoil and corn-based ethanol margins. The yen move is a secondary, short-lived effect.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.