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Russia agreed to resume trilateral negotiations with the US and Ukraine starting November 10, which prompted wheat futures to fall 2.5% to 3.6% in one session. Euronext December wheat dropped the most, while Chicago SRW and Kansas City HRW also declined.
The article notes that Black Sea export blockades had previously pushed prices sharply higher.
A possible ceasefire could free large Russian and Ukrainian wheat volumes that are currently stalled, which would weigh on world wheat prices. Traders are pricing that risk premium out, though the market remains sensitive to any breakdown in talks.
tridge.comVictor LangatOct 22, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 16 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -4.3% to -1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
