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The World Bank warned the Ukraine war will cause the largest commodity shock since the 1970s, with energy prices rising more than 50%. Natural gas in Europe is forecast to more than double, and food and cotton prices are also set to rise sharply.
Elevated prices are expected to persist into 2024.
Higher energy and fertilizer-linked costs raise feed production and freight expenses, and sustained elevated prices pressure feed buyers' margins.
bbc.comJonathan JosephsApr 26, 2022After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 57 past bullish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.7%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
