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A global energy shortage has pushed coal, gas and oil prices sharply higher, with China reporting low coal stocks at power stations. Gas inventories are 5% below the pre-pandemic seasonal average in the U.S. and 15% below in Europe, while front-month gas futures have risen 140% in the U.S. and far more in Europe and Northeast Asia.
Broad energy tightness raises production and processing costs for feed and fertilizer, and coal shortages in China increase power and industrial costs. Higher energy prices support the cost floor for feed commodities.
reuters.comJohn KempSep 24, 2021After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
