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An Ontario University of Guelph analysis reports that average prices for five common fertilizers rose 33% in 2021 versus 2020, with UAN and MAP up as much as 40% and 48%. It attributes the increases to Chinese shortages, the European energy crisis, higher natural gas costs and freight disruptions.
Higher fertilizer costs raise grain production expenses, which can shift acreage and crop mix and support feed grain prices over time.
foodfocusguelph.caMike von MassowJan 31, 2022After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, DAP moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
