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The Fertilizer Institute's CEO says a series of events, including COVID-era demand planning, extreme weather, plant shutdowns and government sanctions, have pushed fertilizer prices to record highs. Strong corn and soybean markets have added demand pressure, especially on nitrogen, which faces higher natural gas costs.
Record fertilizer costs, particularly nitrogen tied to natural gas, raise grain production costs and may influence planted acreage and feed-grain supply.
brownfieldagnews.comMark DorenkampSep 29, 2021After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, DAP moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Industry commentary on plant shutdowns, sanctions, high gas costs and strong corn demand supports tight nitrogen supply and demand pressure.
