
Farm Progress explains that US fertilizer prices have reached record levels, with DAP, MAP, potash and urea near or above $800 per ton at end-December 2021. The article attributes the rise mainly to high coal and natural gas costs, plus China's phosphate export restrictions and US tariffs on imports.
Sustained high phosphate, potash and nitrogen costs raise the cost of crop production for US farmers, which can affect acreage decisions and feed grain supply.
After 28 past bullish macro events, DAP moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.