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UC Davis economist Aaron Smith says fertilizer prices almost doubled between summer 2020 and end-2021 and continue to rise. Oil and gas price surges tied to Russian threats to Ukraine pushed fertilizer costs higher still.
Higher fertilizer prices strengthen the incentive for US farmers to cut nitrogen use, which could reduce corn yields and supply. The cost pressure also lifts feed production expenses.
agriculture.ucdavis.eduRia DeBiaseFeb 25, 2022After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
