
CBOT corn rebounded about 12% to three-month highs in mid-September from four-year lows, while CBOT wheat rose 11-15% month-on-month. Soybeans gained about 6% on hot, dry U.S. weather that raised yield concerns, and EU and Black Sea dryness also supported wheat.
Dry U.S. August weather and European and Black Sea crop losses lift feed grain and oilseed prices, and a weaker dollar adds to the upward pressure.
After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 57 past bullish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.7%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
It documents the 11-15% monthly CBOT wheat rally, with macro support and EU/Black Sea dryness underpinning prices.