
Nutrien chief economist Jason Newton told an IFMA congress in Saskatoon that global stocks-to-use for major crops excluding China has trended down since 2018. He cited four years of below-trend yields, weather, and low fertilizer application, and said China is expected to move into a 49 million tonne grain deficit in 2024.
Tightening global grain stocks and rising biofuel demand support crop prices, which lifts the cost of feed grains and protein for buyers.
After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 57 past bullish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.7%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.