
CoBank economist Brian Earnest says 2022 hog producer margins could match or exceed 2021's strong levels, with live hog value near 35% of retail pork value. Hog values have risen about $8/cwt since February, offsetting higher feed costs that are up 17% year over year.
Strong hog margins support herd rebuilding incentives and sustained feed demand, though labor shortages and lower throughput keep pork supply tight.
After 37 past macro events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.