Malaysian palm oil futures ended nearly 4% higher on March 8, 2021, reaching 3,878 ringgit a tonne, tracking sharp gains in soyoil and crude oil and a large US stimulus package. Palm also touched a 10-year intraday high, while China's African swine fever outbreak was seen possibly raising its imports.
Stronger crude and soyoil prices lift palm oil through biodiesel and substitution links, raising vegetable oil costs for feed formulators. African swine fever in China could lift import demand for feed ingredients.
After 38 past bullish macro events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.5% to +3.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (32% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.8%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 37 past macro events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Same-day report ties soyoil gains to a crude oil rally and US stimulus, indicating the energy and macro channel (biofuel input cost, sentiment) that drove soyoil and palm higher.