
Nutrien's explainer says rising EU natural gas costs are forcing several nitrogen fertilizer producers to curtail or halt output. Nutrien is running its North American plants at maximum safe output and is developing a clean ammonia project at Geismar, Louisiana, with a final investment decision due in 2023.
The company also cites COVID-era supply chain bottlenecks and the Russian invasion of Ukraine as factors in fertilizer costs.
Gas-driven curtailments in Europe cut nitrogen supply, which tightens urea and ammonia markets and keeps fertilizer costs high for farmers. Higher input costs for feed grains also feed into the price outlook.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.