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JIRCAS republished an AMIS overview of recent fertilizer market trends, noting about 169 million tonnes expected to be traded in 2024. It describes China's export restrictions since 2021, which cut its urea and phosphate exports by 95% and 21% since 2020, and the effects of sanctions on Belarus and the Ukraine conflict on regional supply.
Persistent export curbs from China and Russian/Belarusian supply constraints keep fertilizer costs elevated, which raises input costs for feed-grain producers and supports the case for higher corn and soy production costs.
jircas.go.jpJapan International Research CenterMay 13, 2025After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, DAP moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
