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Container shipping rates and natural gas prices have risen sharply, and uncertainty over Chinese export restrictions could reignite fertilizer volatility. Urea in the Middle East spiked from $266/MT in May to $330/MT in early June, and Russia extended its fertilizer export quotas to November 30.
Higher gas and freight costs raise nitrogen fertilizer production and delivery costs, supporting urea prices even as weak ammonium nitrate demand limits short-term gains.
sfs.org.auJun 23, 2024After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
