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S&P Global analysts say global fertilizer prices hit multi-year highs after surging natural gas and coal feedstock costs and export restrictions. Natural gas is both a feedstock and fuel for nitrogen fertilizer, and China's phosphate export ban and Russia's fertilizer export ban added to supply tightness.
Higher fertilizer costs raise farm input expenses and may cut planted acreage or application rates, which can tighten future grain and oilseed supply and support feed prices.
spglobal.comShikha Singh, Hwee Hwee TanJan 19, 2022After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, DAP moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
