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IFPRI blog post on how fertilizer prices for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium surged over the past 18 months and hit new highs after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The authors link these input costs to rising global food security concerns.
Higher fertilizer costs squeeze farm margins and can reduce application rates, which tightens future grain and feed supplies and supports feed grain prices.
ifpri.orgCharlotte Hebebrand, David LabordeApr 25, 2022After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 28 past bullish macro events, DAP moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
