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The World Bank says fertilizer prices have risen nearly 30% since the start of 2022, after an 80% surge last year. Urea has surpassed its 2008 peak and phosphate and potash are approaching 2008 levels, driven by input costs, sanctions on Russia and Belarus, and China's export restrictions.
Higher nutrient costs squeeze feed-grain margins and push farmers toward lower application rates, which can cut future yields. Prices are expected to stay elevated, supporting input-cost pressure on corn and wheat.
blogs.worldbank.orgJohn Baffes, Wee Chian KohMay 11, 2022After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, DAP moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
