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Fertilizer prices for this season have largely been delivered and spread, with KAS 27% steady near €10 per 27 kg and TSP 45% stable at €44.70 per 100 kg. Insiders expect little price change in the coming weeks but see uncertain longer-term direction as grain prices appear to have peaked and crude oil and natural gas have risen sharply.
Higher natural gas and crude costs support nitrogen fertilizer production costs, while expected softer grain prices could push farmers to cut fertilizer use, creating conflicting pressures on urea and nitrogen prices.
en.boerenbusiness.nlJurphaas LugtenburgJul 2, 2021After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
