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Malaysian palm oil futures fell 4.2% to 4,703 ringgit a tonne on recession fears that hit edible oils, after an intraday drop of about 7%. Malaysia's June exports fell between 7.4% and 13.4% from May as shipments to India and the EU slowed.
Palm later recovered some losses when crude oil rose on supply outages in Libya and Norway.
Recession fears reduce demand for edible oils and biodiesel, while weaker Malaysian exports add to the supply overhang. Stronger crude oil could support palm by making it more competitive as biodiesel feedstock.
brecorder.comReutersJul 1, 2022After 51 past bearish macro events, Palm Oil moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.1%), and -1.8% over 20.
After 40 past bearish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
4% drop on July 1 on recession fears and a higher supply outlook, with weaker June exports to India and the EU.
Recession fears hit edible oils with an intraday drop of ~7%, alongside weaker June Malaysian exports and a higher supply outlook, matching the window's sharp selloff.
July 1 recession fears and a higher supply outlook hit edible oils, setting up the weak sentiment that carried into the July 4 soyoil drop.
Recession fears and weaker June Malaysian exports hit edible oils just before the move, adding demand-side and sentiment pressure.
