
Malaysian palm oil futures fell 8.46% on Wednesday to close at 3,225 ringgit per tonne, touching their lowest since February 2021 intraday. Losses were driven by recession fears, a stronger dollar and selling by traders clearing long positions.
Weaker demand for edible oils amid recession fears pushes palm oil prices lower, reducing the cost of vegetable oil substitutes for feed formulators.
After 51 past bearish macro events, Palm Oil moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.1%), and -1.8% over 20.
After 40 past bearish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Sept 28 palm futures fell 8.46% to a 1.5-year low on recession fears, a stronger dollar and long liquidation, which is a demand and sentiment shock of the same size as the move.