Loading…
Oil prices fell about 5% over six sessions to their lowest since May 24, 2021, amid rising coronavirus cases and expectations of weaker fuel demand. Palm oil and canola futures also declined, with Malaysian palm oil down 2.4% and Winnipeg canola down 2%.
Canadian canola harvest forecasts were cut to 15-17 million tonnes, with some estimates as low as 12 million.
Lower crude prices reduce the appeal of biofuel feedstocks, pressuring vegetable oil prices, while tighter Canadian canola supply offers some support. Oilseed price direction depends on whether energy weakness persists.
graintrade.com.uaAug 19, 2021After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 51 past bearish macro events, Palm Oil moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.1%), and -1.8% over 20.
After 40 past bearish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Falling crude oil and weaker palm and canola prices in the prior sessions reduced biofuel-linked demand and gave a bearish lead into the 20 August selloff.
