Oil prices fall more than 3% on recession worries

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jul 1, 2022Oil prices fall due to recession worries-0.9%
• Dec 12, 2023U.S. crude oil falls more than 3% on inflation worries+1.7%
• May 30, 2023Canadian dollar dips as oil prices fall more than 4%-0.4%
• Oct 29, 2020Oil falls more than 3%, on track for worst week since April+4.6%
• Dec 24, 2018Plunging oil prices show the market is worried about 2019 recession-0.5%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Jul 1, 2022Oil prices fall due to recession worries-7.1%
• Dec 12, 2023U.S. crude oil falls more than 3% on inflation worries+3.3%
• Oct 29, 2020Oil falls more than 3%, on track for worst week since April+5.1%
• Dec 24, 2018Plunging oil prices show the market is worried about 2019 recession-1.3%
• Mar 18, 2020Oil falls 24% in 3rd worst day on record, sinks to more than 18-year low-9.0%

After 204 past macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.7% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.8%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Apr 4, 2025Oil falls to near 4-year low amid recession fears, OPEC+ production hikes-6.2%
• Jul 5, 2022Oil tumbles 9% on recession demand destruction fears-4.4%
• Sep 21, 2020Oil Prices Fall Amid Broad Selloff | Rigzone-3.3%
• May 24, 2023Oil prices gain 2% on falling U.S. stockpiles, Saudi warning | Reuters-4.4%
• May 6, 2025Why oil prices are falling and what it means for the economy : NPR+6.7%