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Fertilizer prices continue to climb, with urea futures at Gulf ports up about 168 percent year to date. Natural gas, the main feedstock for nitrogen, has surged, and Henry Hub futures hit a nearly 13-year high.
Natural gas accounts for 75-90 percent of nitrogen production costs, so a gas rally feeds through to higher nitrogen prices for corn and wheat with a lag.
qualityfarmsupply.comQFS OnlineNov 22, 2021After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
