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UK imported ammonium nitrate averaged £362/t in August, up £18/t on the month, and granular urea rose £20/t to £417/t. Rising natural gas and Brent crude prices, plus reduced Chinese fertiliser exports and lower EU output, are tightening supply.
Higher nitrogen input costs from energy and tighter Chinese and EU supply support fertilizer prices, which raise grain and feed production costs.
fwi.co.ukCharlie ReeveSep 19, 2023After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
