
Urea prices firmed after large sales by Egypt, and concern over cuts to European ammonium nitrate output from surging gas prices added to demand. UK farmers are switching from AN to urea because of the price gap per kg of nitrogen, with urea offered at £735-760/t for delivery October to January.
European gas costs are forcing ammonia and AN output lower, pushing buyers toward urea and supporting nitrogen prices into the fall application season. Feed buyers should expect firm input costs for grain and forage crops.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.