
Nitrogen fertilizer prices rose again after CF Industries shut its two UK ammonia plants because of record gas costs. Billingham was later set to reopen, but CF could not confirm when new ammonium nitrate supply would return, and urea prices were rising daily.
Energy-driven fertilizer shutdowns push up the cost of nitrogen inputs for grain and forage production, which feeds through to higher costs for feed grains and protein supply.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.