
European gas prices are about ten times their decade average, with UK gas reaching 537p per therm in August. The rise follows post-Covid demand recovery, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, EU efforts to cut Russian imports, and Gazprom suspending deliveries to several European countries over non-payment.
Expensive European gas is squeezing fertilizer output and raising energy costs across agriculture, supporting higher nitrogen fertilizer and feed production costs.
After 155 past bullish macro events, NATGAS moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 92 past bullish macro events, UREA moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.