The US Department of Agriculture projects global vegetable oil exports will reach a record 141 million tonnes in 2026/27, driven by sharp gains in rapeseed and sunflower oil trade, while palm oil exports are expected to decline slightly.
Persistent port congestion, container imbalances and route disruptions are keeping ocean freight costs elevated for agricultural shippers even as some trade lanes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal show signs of partial normalization, according to CMB News.
Sunflower oil prices fell for a third consecutive month in September 2026, according to FAO data, as ample Black Sea supply weighs on the market. However, damaged Ukrainian port infrastructure, elevated maritime risk premia, and constrained Russian export routes are cushioning the downturn and keeping volatility high.
US corn and wheat futures recovered from multi-week lows on October 1, 2026, while soybeans fell across the complex. Key market drivers included a record-high US winter wheat acre abandonment rate, a sharp cut to Russia's wheat export forecast, surging US soybean export commitments led by China, and record combined biodiesel and renewable diesel production in July.
China's soybean import demand is expected to ease in the coming months as private crushers face negative crush margins and weak feed demand linked to shrinking hog herds. Soybeans were excluded from tariff relief announced after the Xi-Trump summit, keeping US cargoes uncompetitive with South American supplies. Domestic inventories at Chinese crushing plants have reached a 15-year high.
Spanish plant-based protein producer Elian has received a €40 million (US$45.66M) investment from Spain's state-owned COFIDES, giving the institution a 13.8% minority stake, as the company advances a broader €300 million expansion of its soy processing hub at the Port of Barcelona targeting completion in early 2028.
Bunge has entered a strategic commercial partnership with BASF to crush and process InVigor Gold, a canola-quality Brassica juncea hybrid seed bred for hotter, drier growing regions. Crushing is set to begin at Bunge's Warden, Washington facility, with initial commercial availability of the seed planned for Montana, North Dakota and Washington in 2027.
A strengthening El Niño event, combined with fertilizer shortages, geopolitical tensions, and elevated energy costs, could push global food and feed commodity prices up by 14–16%, according to procurement consultancy Beroe. Key feed ingredients including corn, vegetable oils, and sugar face varying levels of supply and price risk, with the full market impact potentially not materialising until 2028.
Spanish plant-based protein producer Elian has received a €40 million (US$45.66 million) minority equity investment from Spain's COFIDES to expand its integrated soybean processing facility at the Port of Barcelona, which is expected to add more than 100,000 tonnes of annual protein ingredient capacity for animal feed and food by early 2028.
Grain and oilseed futures closed mostly lower on 22 September 2026, according to ADM Investor Services analyst Mark Soderberg. Corn drifted back toward session lows while managed money extended a long position that ADMIS described as a potential record high. Soybeans finished mixed, soybean meal protein value reached a seven-month high, and wheat futures fell sharply amid ongoing Black Sea conflict and softening global supply signals.
Corn futures pulled back toward technical support on September 23, 2026, erasing Monday's gains, while a USDA daily export sale to Mexico, a high-stakes Xi-Trump summit in Washington, a proposed U.S. diesel export ban, and a projected 70% surge in global biofuel output by 2030 combined to create a complex backdrop for feed-grain and oilseed markets.
South African SAFEX sunflower seed futures softened in late September 2026 as seasonal harvest pressure weighs on local prices, while Black Sea seed and crude oil values remain underpinned by ongoing Ukrainian port disruptions and a tightening global vegetable oil balance, according to CMB News.