Corn, Soybeans and Wheat Slide as Managed Money Builds Record Corn Long — ADMIS Market View, 22 September 2026

Corn, soybean and wheat futures retreated on 22 September 2026 as managed-money positioning, crop-condition data, and geopolitical developments in the Black Sea region shaped trading, according to the ADM Investor Services (ADMIS) daily agricultural market view authored by analyst Mark Soderberg.

Corn

December 2026 corn futures fell 5–6 cents, drifting back toward session lows at the close, with spreads also weaker, according to ADMIS. The report noted that managed-money traders had bought just over 30,000 contracts the previous session, pushing their net long to 440,000 contracts — described by ADMIS as a potential new record high — even as open interest rose by fewer than 1,000 contracts.

US crop ratings held steady at 57% good/excellent, which ADMIS noted remained at season lows and just below the historical average. Harvest had reached 13% nationally, compared with 10% the prior year and a five-year average of 11%, aided by hot and dry conditions in the South. Based on current ratings, ADMIS estimated an average US yield of 178.2 bushels per acre and production of 15.773 billion bushels, down 24 million from the previous week and just below the USDA forecast of 15.80 billion bushels.

EU corn imports as of 20 September stood at 4.47 million metric tons, up 27% year-on-year, ADMIS reported. The report also noted that US Gulf FOB offers had spiked relative to South American prices, which ADMIS interpreted as a possible attempt to redirect non-Chinese buyers to Brazil or Argentina ahead of any potential Chinese purchases of US grain. ADMIS noted that Dalian corn prices had fallen to a premium of only $70 per tonne over US Gulf prices, matching the low from 2025 and the lowest level since spring 2022, and characterised any potential Chinese buying of US corn as likely to be "purely for political reasons."

Soybeans

November 2026 soybean futures finished down 1–3 cents, hovering just below contract highs at $13.35¼. Soybean meal gained $2 while soybean oil fell 75–95 points. Crush margins eased another 3 cents to $2.37 per bushel, while meal's protein value rose to a seven-month high of 52.2%, according to ADMIS.

Managed-money traders bought 13,000 contracts of soybeans, 8,500 of meal and 3,000 of bean oil the previous session. US crop ratings were steady at 58% good/excellent, with composite ratings at cycle lows but just above the historical average. Harvest reached 12%, ahead of both the prior year and the five-year average of 8%. ADMIS estimated average US soybean yield at 52.5 bushels per acre and production at 4.511 billion bushels, fractionally below the prior week and below the USDA forecast of 4.535 billion bushels.

Overnight, China's Sinograin auctioned just over 62% of the 543,000 tonnes of soybeans offered, and China announced a further auction of 514,000 tonnes for the following Monday. AgRural reported Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop was just over 1% planted. EU soybean imports stood at 2.67 million metric tons, up 14% year-on-year, while EU meal imports at 3.5 million metric tons were down 20.5%.

ADMIS estimated that Chinese purchases of US soybeans were approaching 14 million metric tons, and noted that the market remained hopeful that the US and China would drop reciprocal tariffs following a Trump–Xi summit expected that week.

Wheat

Wheat futures fell broadly, with Chicago Board of Trade December 2026 down 9.5 cents to $7.17¼, Kansas City December 2026 down 13.25 cents to $7.81¼, and MIAX December 2026 down 10 cents to $7.36¼, according to ADMIS.

The report noted that Russian and Ukrainian forces continued military strikes on port infrastructure and cargo vessels in the Black Sea, despite recent discussions between Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan regarding a moratorium to allow safe passage. Russia had eliminated export duties on grain shipments through the end of 2026.

US spring wheat harvest advanced to 96%, matching both the prior-year pace and the five-year average. Winter wheat plantings stood at 17%, below the 19% pace from the prior year and the five-year average of 21%, with 2% of the crop emerged.

Jordan was reported to have bought 60,000 metric tons of optional-origin wheat in a 120,000-metric-ton tender, at $322 per metric ton cost-and-freight for November 2026 shipment. EU soft wheat shipments totalled 6.3 million metric tons, up 2% year-on-year. Argentina's Bolsa de Cereales (BAGE) forecast 2026/27 Argentine wheat production at 23.4 million metric tons, which ADMIS noted was down 4.4 million metric tons from the prior year but still above the USDA estimate of 21.5 million metric tons.