Grain Markets Soften as Supply Forecasts, Ethanol Data, and Black Sea Tensions Weigh on Sentiment

Corn, soybean, and wheat futures declined across the board on 23 September 2026, with a range of bearish supply and demand signals weighing on each market, according to the ADM Investor Services (ADMIS) daily agricultural market commentary authored by Mark Soderberg.

Corn

December 2026 corn futures fell between $0.04 and $0.07, though they continued to hold within the range established on USDA report day, 11 September. The USDA announced a flash sale of 100,000 tonnes (4 million bushels) of corn to Mexico. According to ADMIS, US Gulf FOB offers have spiked relative to South American prices, which the commentary described as a possible attempt to shift non-Chinese buyers toward Brazil or Argentina should China begin purchasing US grain. ADMIS noted that any Chinese purchase of US corn would be driven by political rather than commercial factors, with Dalian prices having fallen to only a $70-per-tonne premium to US Gulf prices — a level matching the 2025 low and the lowest since spring 2022.

Coceral forecast combined EU and UK corn production at 48.6 million metric tonnes (mmt), down 14% year-on-year. In contrast, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) forecast Argentina's 2026/27 corn production at 66 mmt, above the prior year's record of 64 mmt.

Ethanol production fell to 302 million gallons last week, down from 323 million gallons the previous week, though up less than 1% year-on-year. ADMIS described this as the lowest output in five months and below expectations. Corn usage for ethanol production stood at 101 million bushels, or 14.4 million bushels per day. For the marketing year to date, 270 million bushels have been used at a pace of 15.0 million bushels per day, an annualised rate of 5.484 billion bushels — below the USDA forecast of 5.60 billion bushels. Ethanol stocks dipped to 24.7 million barrels, though still above the 23.47 million barrels recorded a year ago.

Soybeans

Soybean prices were down $0.05–$0.08, while meal ranged from $1 lower to $1 higher and soybean oil recovered to close down only 10 points. Meal basis levels spiked, particularly in the Western Corn Belt (WCB), as the ADMIS commentary attributed the tightening to heavy rain delaying harvest in the region, which has diminished soybean supplies. Some crushers pulled their meal offers due to lack of supply, while crush margins rebounded $0.06 to $2.43 per bushel.

China's state grain trader Sinograin announced plans for another auction of 514,000 tonnes of soybean reserves from government stocks the following Monday. Brazil is expected to ship 8 mmt of soybeans in September 2026, down from an earlier forecast of 8.3 mmt, though ADMIS noted this would still represent a record high for the month. AgRural reported Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop is just over 1% planted. The BAGE forecast Argentina's 2026/27 soybean production at 53.6 mmt, up from 50.1 mmt in 2025/26.

Wheat

Wheat futures fell $0.07–$0.10 across all three classes, recovering somewhat to close off session lows. Chicago (CGO) December 2026 settled at $7.08½, down $0.08¾; Kansas City (KC) December 2026 settled at $7.71¾, down $0.09½; and MIAX December 2026 settled at $7.28¾, down $0.07½, closing below its 50-day moving average.

The commentary cited continued military activity in the Black Sea region, noting that Russian and Ukrainian forces were conducting strikes on port infrastructure and cargo vessels despite diplomatic contacts. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed to have struck two logistics centres in Odesa and a dry cargo vessel overnight. Ukraine's Agriculture Minister reported the country's wheat harvest was complete at 25.3 mmt, up 11% year-on-year, with 2026/27 winter wheat plantings reaching 14.6%. Russia's winter wheat plantings stood at 6.1 million hectares, down 14% from the prior year's pace of 7.1 million hectares — the slowest pace since 2013, according to ADMIS.

Coceral forecast combined EU and UK wheat production at 137.5 mmt, down 7.5% year-on-year. The BAGE forecast Argentina's 2026/27 wheat production at 23.4 mmt, down from 27.8 mmt in 2025/26. The lowest offer in Tunisia's 125,000-tonne wheat tender was $311.72 per metric tonne CF, with no sales yet reported.