USDA Forecasts Global Vegetable Oil Exports to Hit Record 141 Million Tonnes in 2026/27
The US Department of Agriculture projects global vegetable oil exports will reach a record 141 million tonnes in 2026/27, driven by sharp gains in rapeseed and sunflower oil trade, while palm oil exports are expected to decline slightly.
Global vegetable oil exports are forecast to reach a record 141 million tonnes in 2026/27, representing an increase of approximately 2% from the previous season, according to the latest oilseeds outlook published by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The USDA attributes the projected expansion primarily to stronger trade in rapeseed and sunflower oil, supported by improved oilseed supplies and firm demand from the food and biofuels sectors.
Rapeseed oil exports are projected to rise by around 8% in 2026/27, while sunflower oil shipments are forecast to increase by approximately 15%, according to the USDA outlook. The agency attributes the sunflower oil gains to increased availability from major producing regions.
On the production side, the USDA forecasts global rapeseed output at nearly 100 million tonnes in 2026/27, with sunflower seed production projected at 63.7 million tonnes. Higher supplies from Canada, Russia, Ukraine and Australia are expected to contribute to rapeseed availability for international markets.
The broader oilseeds picture is also bullish: the USDA forecasts total global oilseed production at a record 718.1 million tonnes in 2026/27, up 19.6 million tonnes from the previous season. Global crushing is projected to rise by 22.6 million tonnes to 549.8 million tonnes, signalling stronger demand for both vegetable oils and protein meals — a key feed ingredient.
Increased crushing activity is expected particularly in the European Union, Canada and Bangladesh for rapeseed, with sunflower seed crushing also forecast to expand.
Not all major oils are expected to share in the trade growth. The USDA projects global palm oil exports to decline by about 2%, while soybean oil export growth is forecast at only around 1%. Global palm oil production is forecast at 81.1 million tonnes in 2026/27, compared with 75.1 million tonnes for soybean oil — a gap that the USDA data indicate has narrowed from more than 15 million tonnes in 2022/23 to about 6 million tonnes.
The USDA noted that vegetable oil prices remain influenced by supply conditions, energy policy, weather and biofuel demand. For processors, traders and food manufacturers, the projected record trade volume could broaden the availability of rapeseed and sunflower oils in international markets, while increasing competition among vegetable oils for food, industrial and biofuel applications, according to the Milling Middle East & Africa report citing the USDA outlook.
Prepared with AI assistance by Endata and reviewed by the editorial team.
