China's Manufacturing PMI Returns to Expansion in September, Lifting Copper Prices
China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September 2026, ending two consecutive months of contraction, while a private survey showed a five-month high of 52.1. Copper prices edged higher on the news, though supply concerns at major Chilean mines added further support to the metal.
China's factory activity returned to growth in September 2026, with the country's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) climbing back above the 50-point expansion threshold after two consecutive months of contraction, according to a market commentary published on 30 September 2026 by ADM Investor Services (ADMIS) analyst J.P. Steiner.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August, matching the median forecast of 50.1 in a Reuters poll. A separate private survey by RatingDog showed a stronger reading, with manufacturing PMI rising to a five-month high of 52.1.
The data provided modest support to base metal markets. Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 0.1% to $14,453 on the day of the release, although ADMIS noted that trading remained subdued ahead of a week-long public holiday in China. Among other base metals, nickel climbed 0.6% to $16,050, tin added 0.2% to $54,530, while zinc shed 0.8% to $3,840, aluminium slipped 0.2% to $3,208, and lead lost 0.5% to $1,889.
ADMIS observed that China's fiscal spending efforts appear to be contributing to the improvement, though it noted that the real test is whether domestic consumption can return strongly. China's leaders have pledged to accelerate fiscal spending and introduce timely policies as they target 4.5%–5% full-year growth. According to ADMIS, however, heavy reliance on exports and industrial production faces risks from geopolitical uncertainty and rising trade frictions.
Copper supply risks also provided a backdrop to the market. A potential workers' strike at BHP's Escondida mine in Chile — described by ADMIS as the world's largest copper mine — reinforced supply concerns, coming after mining operations were suspended the previous week following a fatal accident. Separately, two unions at Antofagasta's Centinela copper mine in Chile rejected a collective contract offer, paving the way for a potential strike, according to Reuters as cited by ADMIS.
The ADMIS commentary is directed at futures and options market participants and carries a standard risk warning that such investments may result in losses exceeding the initial amount invested.
Prepared with AI assistance by Endata and reviewed by the editorial team.
