Sunflower Markets Split: SAFEX Futures Ease on Harvest Pressure While Black Sea Oil Values Hold Firm

Sunflower markets entered late September 2026 in a divided state, with South African futures retreating from recent highs while Black Sea physical prices held firm, reflecting the divergent forces of domestic harvest supply and persistent export-side risk, CMB News reported on 23 September 2026.

SAFEX Eases Under Harvest Pressure

On South Africa's SAFEX exchange, sunflower seed futures closed lower on 22 September 2026. The September 2026 contract settled at 9,942 ZAR/t, down 0.28% on the day, the December 2026 contract fell 0.67% to 10,014 ZAR/t, and the March 2027 contract slipped 0.52% to 9,650 ZAR/t, according to CMB News. The source described nearby SAFEX levels of around 10,000 ZAR/t as confirming the market has "softened from late‑August peaks but remains historically firm for this time of year."

CMB News attributed the easing to adequate domestic supply, noting that South African sunflower seed supply for 2026/27 "looks adequate, with official balance sheets projecting comfortable crush volumes and minimal deficits, helping to cap SAFEX prices near 10,000 ZAR/t despite a weaker rand and firm global oilseed values."

Black Sea Values Supported by Port Disruptions

In the Black Sea region, physical seed and oil prices remained underpinned by export risk. CMB News reported that black sunflower seeds (98% purity) were quoted at 0.44 EUR/kg FCA Odesa and 0.583 EUR/kg FOB Odesa. Crude sunflower oil CPT Odesa was quoted at 1.088 EUR/kg as of the most recent quotation, following notable intra-month volatility that saw the price move from 1.12 EUR/kg on 3 September down to 1.049 EUR/kg on 9 September before recovering to 1.176 EUR/kg on 17 September.

The source attributed the price support to "repeated attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure, including major sunflower oil terminals," which it said "continue to constrain effective export capacity and shift part of the logistics burden to alternative routes, sustaining a structural risk premium."

Despite the supply-side pressure, CMB News noted that Ukraine and Russia are heading into what "market analysts describe as a record or near‑record sunflower seed crop for 2026/27, with expectations for a 15% increase in combined sunflower oil and equivalent exports." However, the source indicated that realised export flows, rather than headline crop size, remained the market's primary focus given ongoing security risks.

EU Harvest Large but Uneven

Within the European Union, the European Commission projected a sunflower seed harvest of around 9.6 million tonnes for 2026, which CMB News described as a three-year high. However, the source noted that "localised summer heat and dryness have trimmed yield potential in some southern and central member states," resulting in uneven quality and regional deficits that it said maintain steady intra-EU trade and keep demand for competitively priced Black Sea supplies intact.

Harvest Weather in Ukraine Adds Uncertainty

Ukraine was reported to be in its main sunflower harvest window, which typically runs from September into October. CMB News highlighted "a significant rainfall deficit across several key producing regions during late seed fill and early harvest, raising concerns about moisture stress and potentially lower oil accumulation as well as variable test weights." The source described weather-related damage as "patchy rather than systemic," with better conditions reported in parts of eastern and northern zones.

Processed Product Prices

In Bulgaria, black sunflower seeds (98% purity) were quoted at 0.44 EUR/kg FCA Sofia and striped sunflower seeds (98%) at 0.74 EUR/kg FOB Sofia. Hulled bakery sunflower kernels FCA Sofia traded at 0.929 EUR/kg, while confection kernels were quoted at 1.16 EUR/kg, according to CMB News. The source said the premium for confection grades over bakery grades indicated "resilient demand in snack and bakery channels."

Outlook

CMB News described nearby SAFEX volatility as "contained" but cautioned that logistics and weather in Ukraine "could quickly shift price direction." For crude sunflower oil on the Black Sea, the source characterised the short-term outlook as "range‑bound but volatile," with values likely to oscillate within the recent band defined by 1.049–1.176 EUR/kg CPT Odesa, tracking freight and logistics news alongside competing vegetable oil markets.