Corn Futures Retreat as Xi-Trump Summit and Biofuel Surge Shape Feed Commodity Outlook

Corn futures retreated toward technical support on September 23, 2026, unwinding the entirety of the previous session's advance, according to Pro Farmer's Ahead of the Open report. December corn found support near $5.28¼, its 20-day moving average, while soybeans and wheat also faced selling pressure.

Grain and Oilseed Market Moves

Pro Farmer called for corn to open 4 to 6 cents lower, soybeans 6 to 8 cents lower, and wheat steady to 3 cents lower. December SRW wheat defended 40-day moving average support overnight at $7.12½, while November soybeans traded near 10-day moving average support at $13.15, according to the report.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture separately reported a daily export sale. Pro Farmer noted that "USDA reported daily sales of 100,000 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2026-27 marketing year."

Xi-Trump Summit and Agricultural Trade

Chinese President Xi Jinping's arrival in Washington on September 23 — his first U.S. visit in three years — brought agricultural trade questions to the fore. Pro Farmer, citing Bloomberg, reported that the summit "will offer the leaders of the world's two largest economies a chance to improve personal ties and look for common ground on contentious topics including trade, artificial intelligence, the Iran war and the future of Taiwan." The two leaders were expected to seek an extension of the October 2025 trade-war truce, which had scaled back mutual tariffs and suspended some export controls, including those on Chinese rare earths.

Ahead of the summit, both sides had been discussing cuts to duties on U.S. energy and agricultural products under what Pro Farmer described as "an earlier initiative to ease import barriers on $30 billion worth of products from each side under a Board of Trade mechanism." On soybeans specifically, Pro Farmer reported that "China is making steady progress on a pledge to buy 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028, recently passing the halfway mark for this year." However, the report flagged that "progress on a separate commitment to spend at least another $17 billion on American crops looks more challenging."

Beef trade remained a notable weak spot. Pro Farmer, citing Bloomberg Economics, reported that Chinese beef imports from the U.S. "totaled just $7 million in the first seven months of the year — a fraction of the $556 million in 2025." China renewed permits for U.S. beef processing plants in May, but the report noted that "shipments have barely recovered as surging U.S. prices and weak Chinese demand curbed beef purchases."

Diesel Export Ban Debate Pressures Farm Inputs

Record U.S. diesel pump prices prompted a growing coalition of Republican lawmakers to back a ban on diesel exports, a development with direct implications for feed-grain production and transportation costs. Pro Farmer, citing Bloomberg, reported that farm and swing-state Republicans argued "$6-plus diesel is crushing growers and truckers." President Trump stated he had already told aides, "let's not send out the diesel," according to the report.

Biofuel Demand Threatens Feed Crop Availability

A report from Chatham House and the Forest Stewardship Council, cited by Pro Farmer via Reuters, projected that global biofuel output is set to "surge nearly 70% by 2030 from 2025 levels." The study attributed the jump to higher blending mandates across Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the United States, and the European Union, driven in part by the Iran war pushing fossil-fuel prices higher. Crude oil had "risen nearly 40% since the war began in late February," with sugar and corn both "up about 20%," according to the report.

The feed industry implications are significant: Pro Farmer noted that "most of that extra fuel would still come from food and feed crops such as corn and sugarcane," and that full implementation of proposed mandates could see land used for biofuel feedstocks "more than double from 2023 levels, adding about 36 million hectares — an area the size of Germany." The authors of the study warned that the pace of demand growth "may rise faster than certification, land-use planning and enforcement," raising risks of food-price spikes, deforestation, and water stress.

Livestock Markets

Live and feeder cattle futures were called to open with a mostly firmer tone on technical buying. Cash cattle trade began the week at $222.00, modestly below the prior week's average, while Choice beef rose $2.54 to $378.89 on Tuesday. Lean hog futures were also expected to open firmer, though Pro Farmer noted prices remained in a downtrend, with the CME lean hog index down 49 cents to $82.92 as of September 21, and pork cutout falling 92 cents to $87.99 Tuesday.