Grain Markets Stabilise on October 1 as Wheat Abandonment Hits Century High and Soybean Export Commitments Surge
US corn and wheat futures recovered from multi-week lows on October 1, 2026, while soybeans fell across the complex. Key market drivers included a record-high US winter wheat acre abandonment rate, a sharp cut to Russia's wheat export forecast, surging US soybean export commitments led by China, and record combined biodiesel and renewable diesel production in July.
US grain and oilseed futures experienced a mixed session on October 1, 2026, according to a daily market commentary published by ADM Investor Services (ADMIS) analyst Mark Soderberg. Corn and wheat contracts recovered late to close higher after touching multi-week lows, while soybean prices fell across the complex.
Corn
December 2026 corn futures recovered to close steady to marginally higher after falling to fresh six-week lows during the session. According to ADMIS, US ethanol production fell to its lowest level in eight months in the most recent reporting week, though the figure was described as in line with expectations. Corn used for ethanol production in August 2026 came in at the high end of expectations and above year-ago levels. Ukraine's corn export performance in September 2026 was notably strong, more than doubling the prior-year figure. US export sales, however, were below expectations, with year-to-date commitments running well below both the historical average and the USDA's own forecast. The market's attention is expected to shift to US harvest progress and an upcoming USDA production update.
Soybeans
Soybean futures fell, with nearby contracts down five to nine cents, while soybean meal lost two to five dollars per ton and soybean oil dropped 70 to 90 points. Despite the daily price weakness, US soybean export commitments were characterised as a notable bullish underpinning. Year-to-date commitments are running 89% above the prior year, far ahead of the USDA's forecast of an 11% increase, and represent 49% of the full-year USDA forecast against a historical average of 41%. China was identified as the dominant buyer. Crush margins declined on the day. The August 2026 census crush was in line with expectations, though cumulative 2025/26 crop-year crush remained slightly below the USDA's full-year estimate. Soybean oil stocks fell below expectations. On the biofuels side, combined biodiesel and renewable diesel production in July 2026 reached a record high, with soybean oil usage also setting a record.
Wheat
All three wheat classes recovered to close higher on October 1 after earlier weakness. The most significant fundamental development flagged by ADMIS was a historically high US winter wheat acre abandonment rate. The report also noted that analytical firm SovEcon reduced its forecast for Russian wheat exports by a further 4.7 million metric tonnes to 36.7 million metric tonnes — well below the USDA's standing forecast of 43 million metric tonnes. Ukraine's wheat shipments also declined sharply year-on-year. Saudi Arabia was reported to have tendered for 535,000 metric tonnes of wheat. US wheat export commitments are running below both historical averages and the USDA's forecast, with ADMIS warning that a pickup in sales is needed to avoid a future USDA export downgrade.
Prepared with AI assistance by Endata and reviewed by the editorial team.