USDA September 30 Quarterly Stocks Report: Bearish for Corn, Neutral for Wheat
The USDA's September 30, 2026 quarterly stocks report showed corn inventories well above market expectations, a bearish signal for the feed grain, while wheat stocks came in below forecasts and soybean stocks were slightly supportive, according to an analysis by ADM Investor Services.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its September 30, 2026 quarterly stocks and Small Grains Summary report, delivering data that market analyst Mark Soderberg of ADM Investor Services (ADMIS) characterised as bearish for corn, neutral for wheat, and slightly supportive for soybeans.
Corn: Stocks Above Estimates, Production Cut
Corn stocks as of September 1 came in significantly above trade expectations. According to the ADMIS analysis, September 1 corn stocks were reported at 2.095 billion bushels, which Soderberg described as "177 mil. bu. above expectations and above the range of estimates." The result is considered bearish for corn prices and, by extension, feed costs for livestock and poultry producers who rely on corn as a primary feed ingredient.
The USDA simultaneously revised its estimate of 2025 corn production downward. The ADMIS note states that "2025 production was cut 57 mil. bu. to 16.964 bil. still a record high," with the average yield left unchanged at 186.5 bushels per acre while harvested acres were reduced by 310,000 acres. Soderberg indicated he expects the USDA to "slash 2025/26 Feed & Residual Use over 200 mil. bu." in its forthcoming October 2026 WASDE report, which would partially offset the stock surplus.
Soybeans: Stocks Slightly Below Forecast
Soybean stocks offered a modestly different picture. The ADMIS analysis notes that September 1 soybean stocks of 315 million bushels were "9 mil. below expectations," a figure Soderberg described as "a bit supportive." The 2025 soybean crop was trimmed marginally, with "2025 production was cut 1 mil. bu. to 4.261 bil., in line with expectations," and the average yield held steady at 53.0 bushels per acre while harvested area was reduced by 20,000 acres. Soderberg noted his expectation of higher exports in the October 2026 WASDE to further tighten stocks.
Wheat: Production Above Expectations, Stocks Below Year-Ago Levels
The wheat picture was mixed. All-wheat production was reported at 1.534 billion bushels, above expectations, with winter wheat production raised to 1.019 billion bushels. Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter (SRW), and white wheat all posted gains within the winter category. However, spring wheat production fell to 450 million bushels. September 1 wheat stocks of 1.846 billion bushels came in "26 mil. below expectations and well below the 2.134 bil. from YA," according to the ADMIS commentary, contributing to the neutral overall assessment for wheat.
The ADMIS report was published on September 30, 2026, and was authored by Mark Soderberg. ADM Investor Services International Limited is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.
Prepared with AI assistance by Endata and reviewed by the editorial team.