The USDA's September 30, 2026 quarterly stocks report showed corn inventories well above market expectations, a bearish signal for the feed grain, while wheat stocks came in below forecasts and soybean stocks were slightly supportive, according to an analysis by ADM Investor Services.
U.S. grain futures on September 25, 2026 finished near session highs after early selling pressure gave way to a recovery driven by a weaker dollar and trade-deal optimism. December corn edged up fractionally, November soybeans posted weekly gains on news of a U.S.-China trade subset agreement, while wheat futures ended the week lower amid a sustained price downtrend. Persistent Midwest rains are delaying harvest and tightening soybean supplies at processors.
MDEX palm oil futures posted modest gains on 23 September 2026, with the nearby October 2026 contract settling at MYR 4,640 per tonne. A gently upward-sloping forward curve reflects competing pressures: elevated Malaysian inventories and soft exports on the bearish side, against Indonesia's imminent B50 biodiesel mandate and drier-than-normal regional weather on the supportive side.
China's state grain reserve operator Sinograin has resumed large-scale soybean auctions, including a tranche of around 543,000 tonnes of 2023–2025 crop beans, in a move analysts say is designed to rotate aging stocks and free silo capacity ahead of potential fresh US arrivals. With China estimated to be roughly halfway toward a 25 MMT US soybean purchase commitment, market participants are closely watching upcoming high-level US–China talks for any signal on tariff relief, which could quickly accelerate buying and tighten US export capacity.
Linseed prices at FCA Dordrecht remain unchanged week-on-week as of 19 September 2026, with Kazakh organic brown holding at €1.25/kg and Russian conventional yellow at €1.40/kg, amid strong new-crop export flows and non-threatening harvest weather across both origins.
Cumulative global fishmeal production fell 49% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2026, with fish oil output down 30%, driven by shortfalls in South America and weaker catches in Africa and Northern Europe. IFFO says Asian producers may partially offset the decline in Q4, but demand headwinds in China's aquaculture and pig sectors are weighing on recovery prospects.
Strong soybean meal exports from Argentina — close to 3 million tonnes in August 2026 — driven by sustained buying from the EU, Vietnam, Türkiye and Indonesia, are keeping Argentine crushing margins attractive and supporting global soybean demand. FOB soybean prices in Ukraine, the US and China remained broadly flat in euro terms in mid-September, while emerging weather risks in Brazil's Mato Grosso introduce potential upside price risk later in the 2026/27 season.
Global fishmeal production fell 49 percent year on year in the first seven months of 2026, while fish oil output dropped 30 percent, as El Niño continued to suppress catches in Peru and Chile. IFFO's market research director said Asian producers could partially offset the shortfall in the final quarter, but demand headwinds in China's aquaculture and pig sectors are adding further pressure.
The USDA's September WASDE trimmed 2026/27 US corn ending stocks and slashed production forecasts, while soybean ending stocks edged lower on stronger export demand. Wheat balances were broadly stable. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's shutdown of its East-West pipeline and record-high diesel cracks are adding freight and energy cost pressure that feed manufacturers and ingredient traders will need to monitor closely.