El Niño Drives Sharp Drop in Global Fishmeal and Fish Oil Output in 2026
Global fishmeal production fell 49 percent year on year in the first seven months of 2026, while fish oil output dropped 30 percent, as El Niño continued to suppress catches in Peru and Chile. IFFO's market research director said Asian producers could partially offset the shortfall in the final quarter, but demand headwinds in China's aquaculture and pig sectors are adding further pressure.
Global fishmeal production fell by 49 percent year on year during the first seven months of 2026, while fish oil output declined by 30 percent, according to data cited by The Fish Site on 17 September 2026. Peru and Chile were identified as the largest contributors to the decline, with El Niño continuing to weigh on output from both major producing countries. Lower catches in parts of Africa and northern Europe compounded the global shortfall.
Enrico Bachis, market research director at IFFO, offered a degree of optimism about the supply outlook for the remainder of the year. "The reduced fishmeal and fish oil supply from South America might be offset by some of the regions in Asia that have their peak fishing season in the last quarter of the year. China, India and Oman are some of them," Bachis said in a press release.
China's domestic fishmeal and fish oil production resumed in August following a seasonal pause. Initial estimates indicated that domestic output through July 2026 was better than levels recorded a year earlier, though the source noted that the availability of fish raw material since August remained to be observed.
Within China's aquaculture sector, demand dynamics vary considerably by species. For specialty species such as largemouth bass, snakehead, and yellow catfish, farm-gate prices remain weak. Stocking volumes for these species declined year on year during the first half of 2026, suggesting softer feed and fishmeal consumption ahead. By contrast, demand for high-value species with stronger profit margins was described as stable or showing signs of improvement. The source noted, however, that persistently high farming costs combined with reduced supply have contributed to an overall year-on-year decline in fishmeal consumption in China.
In China's pig sector, fishmeal consumption also remains subdued. The source attributed this primarily to weaker demand for piglet and commercial piglet feed, and indicated that a meaningful recovery in fishmeal demand from the pig sector was unlikely during the remainder of 2026.
The report did not provide price data or forecasts for fishmeal or fish oil markets.
Prepared with AI assistance and reviewed by the editorial team.
