A strengthening El Niño event, combined with fertilizer shortages, geopolitical tensions, and elevated energy costs, could push global food and feed commodity prices up by 14–16%, according to procurement consultancy Beroe. Key feed ingredients including corn, vegetable oils, and sugar face varying levels of supply and price risk, with the full market impact potentially not materialising until 2028.
Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all closed lower on 23 September 2026, pressured by weak ethanol output, lower EU and UK crop forecasts from Coceral, ongoing Black Sea military strikes, and shifting South American production outlooks, according to an ADM Investor Services market commentary.
Grain and oilseed futures closed mostly lower on 22 September 2026, according to ADM Investor Services analyst Mark Soderberg. Corn drifted back toward session lows while managed money extended a long position that ADMIS described as a potential record high. Soybeans finished mixed, soybean meal protein value reached a seven-month high, and wheat futures fell sharply amid ongoing Black Sea conflict and softening global supply signals.
Corn futures pulled back toward technical support on September 23, 2026, erasing Monday's gains, while a USDA daily export sale to Mexico, a high-stakes Xi-Trump summit in Washington, a proposed U.S. diesel export ban, and a projected 70% surge in global biofuel output by 2030 combined to create a complex backdrop for feed-grain and oilseed markets.
An Ohio State University Extension specialist says reports of Gibberella ear rot during the 2026 corn silage harvest indicate likely Deoxynivalenol (DON) and Zearalenone (ZEA) contamination, and urges dairy producers to sample feed now and again at feed-out, while reviewing storage and nutritional management practices to limit herd impacts.
Philippine corn production is projected to fall 14.4% to 2.08 million tonnes following typhoon damage, with El Niño conditions forecast to intensify into late 2026. The supply squeeze is accelerating feed-industry interest in drought-tolerant millet as a partial corn substitute, while European and Black Sea export prices remain broadly stable.
A series of typhoons in the Philippines has reduced July–September 2026 corn production by an estimated 14.4%, tightening regional feed grain availability and pushing up input cost risk for Southeast Asian feed manufacturers. CBOT December 2026 corn futures are trading around 529 USc/bu, while buyers consider alternative grains including millet.
Chicago corn futures rose on 21 September 2026, driven by trader positioning ahead of US–China talks that could unlock new Chinese grain purchases and by persistent Black Sea supply uncertainties. Gains were broad-based but moderate, with the market still awaiting concrete outcomes from the summit.
ADM plans to enter the voluntary carbon removal market using credits from its corn processing complex in Columbus, Nebraska, which captures more than 800,000 tonnes of biogenic CO₂ per year. The credits will be certified by Puro.earth and are expected to be among the largest offerings of their kind, with initial issuance targeted by end of 2026.
Argentina's 2026/27 wheat output is forecast to fall sharply from the previous season's record, while war-related disruptions continue to constrain Black Sea exports. Together, the two developments are tightening global high-quality wheat availability and pushing Chicago futures to a multi-year high, raising import costs for buyers in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
German feed corn prices remain steady at 0.295 EUR/kg EXW Drentwede amid a drought-reduced domestic harvest, while Ukrainian export corn at Odesa has softened to 0.157–0.159 EUR/kg on CPT and FOB terms, widening the spread between the two origins and keeping EU feed buyers well supplied from Black Sea sources despite ongoing logistics risks.
Chicago December wheat futures settled lower on September 21, 2026, but a combination of solid US export sales and persistent Black Sea supply disruption risks is preventing a deeper price correction, according to CMB News.