German Feed Corn Holds Firm as Ukrainian Export Discounts Widen

German and Ukrainian feed corn prices are diverging sharply, according to a 22 September 2026 market report from CMB News, with German prices holding firm on a drought-reduced harvest while Ukrainian export quotations continue to ease under the weight of ample supply and constrained logistics.

German Prices Steady on Tight Domestic Supply

Feed corn EXW Drentwede in Germany is quoted at 0.295 EUR/kg, unchanged since 18 September, according to CMB News. The stability reflects a tighter domestic grain market following what Germany's federal agriculture ministry has described as a crisis harvest season. CMB News reports that national grain output is down approximately 7% year-on-year, with regional bodies in northern Germany highlighting "reduced cereal yields and widespread heat days above 30°C." Soil-moisture indices for maize as of 20 September confirm continued stress in parts of northern and eastern Germany, the report states, limiting the prospect of any near-term increase in domestic supplies.

Ukrainian Corn Softens Amid Supply Surplus and Logistics Friction

Ukrainian corn prices at Odesa have eased, with CPT quotations falling to 0.157 EUR/kg from 0.165 EUR/kg previously, and FOB values declining to 0.159 EUR/kg from 0.166 EUR/kg, according to CMB News price data. FCA Odesa corn is reported flat at 0.180 EUR/kg but remains well below German levels. CMB News attributes the weakness to "weak export demand and ample supply," noting that CPT and FOB Odesa quotations have eased "by around 0.008–0.009 EUR from early September levels."

The 2026/27 Ukrainian crop outlook is described as large, with CMB News reporting that "official and analytical forecasts converging around production above 30 million tonnes and exports in the high twenties." EU crop-monitoring bulletins cited by the source "anticipate slightly above-average grain-maize yields at country level despite regional drought."

War Risk Reshaping Ukrainian Export Routes

Ongoing conflict continues to affect how Ukrainian corn reaches buyers. CMB News reports that "ongoing attacks on Odesa port infrastructure and elevated war-risk premiums continue to distort Black Sea logistics," with Ukraine increasingly relying on the Danube corridor and western land crossings. The source states that "recent data show a sharp re-orientation of rail grain flows towards Danube ports and EU borders, with the Danube cluster and western crossings now handling the bulk of exports." While this keeps Ukrainian corn physically accessible for EU feed buyers, it embeds additional logistics costs and timing risks, the report notes.

Weather Seen as Neutral Factor

For the 22–24 September period, CMB News forecasts mostly cloudy conditions with temperatures of 15–18°C and scattered showers in German growing areas, describing the pattern as "neutral for standing late maize." In central and southern Ukraine, including the Odesa region, variable cloud cover, showers, and temperatures of 19–23°C are expected, which CMB News characterises as "broadly favourable for maturing maize," though intermittent showers could slow harvest progress locally.

Near-Term Outlook

CMB News expects the price divergence to persist in the short term. German EXW feed corn around 0.295 EUR/kg is described as "likely to remain firm over the next three days, with a mild upward bias if feed demand picks up or logistics tighten." Ukrainian CPT and FOB levels of 0.157–0.159 EUR/kg are forecast to "stay soft to slightly weaker in the very short term" given continued large supply and logistics headwinds.