Philippine Feed Corn Output Set to Drop 14.4% as Typhoon Damage and El Niño Risk Drive Millet Interest

Philippine corn output is forecast to drop sharply in 2026, tightening the country's feed-grain balance and pushing livestock producers and feed manufacturers toward alternative ingredients, particularly millet, according to a market analysis published by CMB News on 24 September 2026.

Production Downgrade

Domestic corn production is now expected at 2.08 million tonnes, a 14.4% decline from the prior estimate of 2.43 million tonnes, according to CMB News. The report attributes the shortfall to typhoon damage that reduced harvested area and depressed yields, especially in major producing regions. The downgrade reinforces the Philippines' reliance on imported feed grains and on alternative energy sources in livestock rations.

El Niño Risk Adds to Pressure

The weather outlook compounds the production concern. CMB News reported that "climate models and local meteorological agencies now see El Niño conditions strengthening into late 2026, increasing the probability of below-normal rainfall and prolonged dry spells across parts of the country." The report noted that moisture stress during critical crop growth stages in upcoming planting cycles could curtail any recovery in output beyond the already-projected 14.4% decline, raising the risk of episodic local price spikes for feed users.

Millet Gaining Operational Traction

Against this backdrop, feed-grain diversification is described by CMB News as shifting "from a strategic discussion to an operational necessity." Millet is being evaluated for its drought tolerance and suitability as a feed grain, though the source notes it "cannot fully replace corn in all rations." Authorities and industry are examining whether scaled millet use can reduce exposure to domestic corn supply shocks and smooth feed cost volatility for livestock integrators.

Global Export Prices Broadly Stable

International corn benchmarks show only modest movement and remain relatively contained. CMB News reported the following physical prices as of late September 2026:

• Ukraine, Odesa — corn yellow feed grade, 14.5% max moisture, FCA: €0.17/kg, down from €0.18/kg on 17 September 2026.
• Ukraine, Odesa — corn feed grade, 14% max moisture, 98% purity, CPT: €0.157/kg, flat versus 18 September 2026, after easing from €0.165/kg on 17 September 2026.
• Germany, Drentwede — corn feed grade, 14% max moisture, EXW: €0.30/kg on 22 September 2026, up from €0.295/kg on 21 September 2026.
• France, Paris — corn yellow, FOB: €0.25/kg, unchanged since late August 2026.

CMB News characterised the overall picture as one of "only mild firming in German domestic prices and a slightly softer trend in some Ukrainian export channels," suggesting international supply remains readily available.

Import Dependency and Procurement Strategy

CMB News assessed that the Philippine corn shortfall will likely be met through "a combination of higher imports, increased use of alternative grains and by-products, and efficiency gains in feed formulation." The source noted that because global exporters in the Black Sea and EU still show competitive and relatively stable prices, "the main constraint for buyers may be logistics and timing rather than absolute availability." The near-term global corn price tone was described as "broadly stable, with localized firmness more likely to appear in domestic Asian markets than on core export benchmarks."