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Wheat prices fell 12.7% in September to $6.75 per bushel, their largest monthly decline since June 2024, after reaching an intramonth high of $7.95. The report attributes the decline to improved prospects for Russia-Ukraine peace, favorable weather, weaker demand, reduced concern about Black Sea shipping disruptions, and comparatively expensive U.S. wheat amid a strong dollar.
Reduced perceived disruption risk and favorable supply conditions weighed on global wheat prices, while weak demand and the strong dollar made U.S. exports less competitive. These forces imply bearish pressure on U.S. and Black Sea wheat values.
coinsinsight.comNov 8, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 16 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -4.3% to -1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
