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EUR/USD held modest gains near 1.1200 as the US dollar pared earlier declines. WTI fell more than 5% to near $96 a barrel after positive US-Iran diplomatic headlines, while Iran's president said the Supreme Leader had granted the government powers over negotiations.
Lower crude reduces inflation and energy-cost pressure, which weighs on diesel and freight costs for feed supply chains and eases the stagflation worry behind the dollar's safe-haven bid. A sustained oil decline would reduce input costs for feed producers.
fxstreet.comVishal ChaturvediNov 2, 2026After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 33 past bearish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 18 past bullish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (83% higher; middle half +0.9% to +2.0%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
